World Trading Datas and Statistics

World Trading Datas and Statistics
Stronger industrial activity was mirrored in world trade.Merchandise trade growth grew 11.0 percent during the first eight months of 2006, up from 6 percent the year before.Most of the acceleration occurred in the China, Japan and the United States and was concentrated in the first quarter.Weaker U.S. consumption and investment demand, and growing domestic demand in the developing world combined with the lagged effects of past depreciations to boost U.S. export volumes by an annualized rate of 13 percent in the first half of 2006, compared with 7 percent in the last half of 2005.Measured on the same basis and over the same period, exports in Japan and China increased by 10 and 30 percent, respectively.Trade flows weakened in the second quarter but show signs of picking up once again in the third quarter.Over the medium term, growth in merchandise trade volumes is projected to ease to about 9 percent, in line with slower global GDP growth.The recent relative strength of U.S. export volumes is projected to persist.
Those volumes are projected to rise by more than 9 percent in 2007 and 2008 as the cumulative effect of past and expected future depreciations increase the international competitiveness of U.S. products.
For developing countries, weaker U.S. import demand should be partially compensated by stronger demand from Europe, but, overall, developing-country export growth is projected to slow from an estimated 12.2 percent in 2006 to 10 percent in 2008, even as countries continue to increase their market share.Developing-country trade reached a landmark in 2006. Following 25 years of solid growth, the value of China’s exports overtook those of the United States, making it the world’s second-largest exporter.Increasing exports in other developing countries, notably Brazil and India, have further increased the weight of developing countries in world trade.
Over the long term, as these trends continue, the share of developing countries in world trade is projected to reach some 45 percent by 2030 (see chapter 2).
While the phenomenal success that China has enjoyed in expanding its world market share since the introduction of market reforms has increased competitive pressure on both developing and developed countries (see chapter 4), Chinese imports also have grown very rapidly (up 477 percent in value terms over the past decade), and China is a growing destination for the exports of other developing countries (Dimaranan, Ianchovichina, and Martin 2006).
Sixty-three percent of China’s imports are intermediate goods, 31 percent in the form of parts and components.
Overall, 79 percent of China’s imports are sourced from developing countries. Partly as a result of China’s rapid increase in imports, the value of other developing countries non-oil exports has risen by 153 percent, and their global market share has increased by 2.3 percentage points.
In addition to these direct effects, the expansion of developing-country commerce means that these countries are increasingly becoming privileged destinations for FDI, both as an export platform for multinational companies, and because they represent the fastest-growing market segment.
The extent to which other developing countries will be able to take advantage of the expected continued strong growth of China and India (see chapter 2) will depend on their ability to expand exports.
This requires eliminating the anti-export bias in their incentive framework, reducing costs of produced services, and improving customs procedures that undermine competitiveness.
It also requires investments in transport systems to reduce transit times (Newfarmer 2005) and in other forms of infrastructure, such as electrical generators. so as to facilitate the expansion of capacity.
In addition, as discussed in chapter 4, countries need to reduce rigidities in product, labor, and financial markets so that firms can react with agility to new opportunities to expand the range of products they produce and sell.
On the multilateral front, the suspension of talks on the Doha Round in July 2006 poses significant challenges.
Weakened confidence in the multilateral system could lead to trade disputes, rising protectionist sentiment, and trade diversion arising from proliferating bilateral and regional trade agreements.
To capitalize on progress already made in the Doha Round, such as the offer to end agricultural export subsidies by 2013, it is important that parties return to the negotiating table with the necessary flexibility to conclude an ambitious deal.